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Code:002389   Name:NanYang Tech

Multiple factors lead to electricity shortage warnings

Date:May 5,2011

Domestic energy supply situation has intensified recently, not only the transfer of thermal coal prices continued to rise, the central province of power grid load is also increasing. In the energy consumption of the off-season supply tight supply situation seems to indicate that this summer may face a comprehensive shortage of electricity.

Analysts believe that this year's high energy-consuming industries continued rapid growth led to the high demand for electricity to run, and in recent years by the continued rise in coal prices, thermal power companies long-term profitability is not strong, thermal power installed capacity growth has slowed, restricting the power Supply capacity upgrade. If the electricity shortage continues and spread, may make the power structure adjustment into a dilemma.

High energy - consuming industries drive electricity demand

Nearly a month, the domestic power supply more tight, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other provinces and cities appeared one million kilowatts of electricity gap, some provinces had to power cuts.

CEC issued a warning that this year the overall power supply and demand tight, the next step in the peak summer, the power supply gap will be further expanded, the gap is expected to 30 million kilowatts, taking into account the climate, coal supply uncertainty factors The role of the squeeze, the gap will be further expanded.

According to the analysis of the Union, the recent recovery in electricity consumption in part because the key areas of industry electricity consumption rebounded significantly, especially steel, cement and other high energy consumption industry, a record high power consumption. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of thermal power, crude steel, coke, cement, refined copper and primary aluminum increased by 12.7%, 9%, 13.3%, 29.8%, 23.7% and 7.4% respectively from January to March. It is easy to see that the growth rate of high energy-consuming industries mostly exceeds power growth.

As electricity demand continues to increase, CLP is expected this year, the whole society will be as high as 4.7 trillion power consumption, an increase of 12%.

Electricity demand also led to rising coal prices continue to rise. Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal prices within 6 weeks per ton rose 41 yuan, or 5.35%. Qinhuangdao port inventory fell to 5 million tons below. Not only that, due to the high international coal prices, China's coal imports also appeared to decline significantly. Data show that China's imports of coal in March 9.05 million tons, down 40.7%; a quarter of total imports of 32.37 million tons of coal, down 26.4%. Due to the current domestic and international coal prices upside down, coal imports decline trend or will continue.

Power supply structure adjustment dilemma

If the recent rise in coal prices reflects the recent high demand for electricity, and in recent years, coal prices continued to run high after the decline in profitability of thermal power enterprises, the consequences of thermal power installed capacity growth slowed down.

Li Ting, a researcher at China Merchants Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, said that the growth momentum of the major high energy consumption products is still strong, which is a direct factor in driving the high demand for electricity. In recent years, the thermal power enterprises are worrying about the slowdown in the growth of thermal power installed capacity. The underlying cause.

Although the wind power, photovoltaic power generation and other new energy power generation has become the focus of future power development, but the short term thermal power as the main power source status is still irreplaceable, so the slow growth of thermal power installed capacity of domestic power supply greater impact.

Analysts worry that the spread of electricity and sustainability may push the power structure to a dilemma. To meet the power needs need to quickly launched more efficient thermal power units, and the elimination and shutting down the pace of small thermal power may also slow down, but it is clear with China's power structure to the new energy, clean energy tilt trend to the left.

Improve the proportion of clean energy, and gradually reduce the proportion of thermal power in the total installed capacity of electricity is an important goal of China's energy policy. Li Ting said that the power structure adjustment is the trend, and in the adjustment of power structure at the same time, should also strengthen the power demand management, reduce energy waste, China's energy efficiency and energy conservation there is still much room.

Reporter Li Yang Dan Source: China Securities Journal

TypeInfo: Industry

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